New data shows that entry-level associate hiring in the US has been flat for four years – despite overall legal market growth. Is this the impact of AI, or something else?
Data from SurePoint’s Law School Hiring Report 2026 found that in the four previous years the number of new associates hired into AmLaw 200 firms, i.e. entry-level joiners from law school, went as follows:
- 2022 – 7,489
- 2023 – 7,640
- 2024 – 7,417
- 2025 – 7,426
I.e. generally flat, with a small decline overall, at a time when the AmLaw 200 have seen tremendous growth and a very busy few years. Note that 2021 was an outlier caused by a sudden surge in hiring following Covid in 2020.
It’s estimated that during those four years the AmLaw 200 added several tens of billions of dollars in combined revenues, yet as seen above, the number of newbies in the US stayed flat, or dropped. That seems counter-intuitive, as a growing market would normally demand more entry-level attorneys to ‘feed the engine’.
Meanwhile, the number of lateral associate hires, i.e. more experienced lawyers who are hired from other law firms, rose over the last three years after an initial surge and a short drop after Covid. In fact, last year in 2025, there were more laterals than newbies.
Is That You AI?
So, is this the impact of AI? In previous years this site would have said ‘no’. Why? Because legal AI uptake was just not broad enough, or its use meaningful enough, to have much of an impact. Yet, many firms by 2025 probably were using AI tools at scale, and in 2026 many more will be.
At the same time, many clients are also using AI for routine tasks – some of which would have been sent out to the junior lawyers at AmLaw 200 firms. So, potentially a double impact.
Therefore, it seems reasonable now to suggest that AI is playing into these figures. The challenge is we don’t know how much yet, or where this is heading.
There is however, another challenge. The trend toward flat newbie hiring started before widescale legal AI use. So, what else is happening? AL’s guess would be that regardless of AI, some of the below factors may be in play:
- Clients are becoming more reticent about paying for very inexperienced lawyers.
- That law firms – in the search for higher profits – prefer laterals, as more experienced lawyers can be charged out at higher rates, and need less training to do complex billable work.
- That some clients are growing their own teams – and using whatever tech is available to them – to keep more work inhouse (regardless of AI). That can tend to reduce the need for law firms to handle their most basic matters – which tend to filter down to the most junior lawyers.
Overall, AL would estimate that these potential trends, added to greater AI use, will combine further in the years to come to create even more powerful conditions that favour laterals over newbies.
The data also underlines – AL would argue – the need for law firms to train up junior lawyers more rapidly, so they can deliver more valuable work product, especially as AI chews up the entry-level tasks.
Last word: even a four-year pattern can suddenly shift again. Trends are just that….trends, and they can tilt in new directions. But, if this trend did stay in place, while AmLaw firms kept growing, this would suggest a deep-seated dislocation between revenue growth and new lawyer hiring.
And, as noted, it would seem reasonable to suggest that AI will only exacerbate such a trend.
You can find the full report here – which largely covers law school rankings.
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Two Major Legal Innovators Conferences this November
Come and join us in New York and London this November at Legal Innovators!
Legal Innovators UK – London, Nov 4 and 5
And, then Legal Innovators New York – Nov 17 and 18.
After another fantastic Legal Innovators California, where we had speakers from OpenAI, Y Combinator, Google, Meta, and many more pioneering organisations; and our stellar inaugural event in Paris this June, we are now looking forward to the landmark conferences in London and New York, both in November, and both across two days: Law Firm Day, and Inhouse Day.
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